Right, so here's the deal heading into Mexico City. Mercedes are sitting pretty in the constructors' championship race, but they've got work to do if they want to seal it this weekend. Currently 133 points clear of Ferrari, the German squad needs to outscore the Scuderia by 39 points to mathematically wrap up the title on Sunday. That's a proper ask, not gonna lie.
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The maths are pretty brutal. Mercedes need either a 1-2 finish with Ferrari scoring basically nothing, or a 1-3 finish where Ferrari can grab at most one point. A 2-3 for Mercedes just doesn't cut it. So we're talking a proper dominant performance from the Silver Arrows, with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell needing to deliver the goods. Their current 133-point cushion means there's 215 points left to play for over five races, but Mercedes need to leave Mexico with a 172-point lead to clinch it.
Here's the thing though, Ferrari have been flying lately. Since Austin, the Scuderia have outscored Mercedes at every single race weekend. Even when Antonelli won at the Circuit of the Americas, Ferrari cut the gap from 134 to 133 points. The Italian team's been on the podium for three straight rounds after a bit of a dry spell, so don't write them off just yet.
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The good news for Mercedes is that if they do manage to clinch the constructors' title on Sunday, Kimi Antonelli basically becomes champion for sure as well. He only needs two points anyway, and even if he finishes third in a Mercedes 1-2, he's getting 15 points. That's plenty. If the constructors' battle doesn't wrap up in Mexico though, expect it to come down to Brazil the following week.
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Mercedes have been the dominant force this season, winning 12 of 18 races, so you'd fancy them to get the job done eventually. But Ferrari aren't making it easy, and that's what makes this title fight genuinely exciting heading into the final stretch of the season.
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