Lewis Hamilton is looking at a grid penalty for a fresh power unit, but Ferrari's strategy means he won't take it at the same race as teammate Charles Leclerc. The plan is to stagger their penalties across different weekends, with Mexico City and Sao Paulo emerging as the frontrunners for where Hamilton will start from the back, though Austin's also in the conversation depending on how things develop over the next few races.

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Leclerc's penalty is expected to come this weekend in Baku, where the circuit's ridiculously long straight offers genuine overtaking opportunities to claw back positions. Hamilton's situation is still being finalized, but the numbers are pushing Ferrari towards introducing a fifth power unit for the seven-time world champion. After his brake failure retirement in Madrid left him 101 points adrift of championship leader Kimi Antonelli, taking a penalty and rotating two engines through the final races is becoming increasingly attractive.

The timing of Hamilton's penalty is crucial though. He's sitting third with 191 points, just five ahead of Lando Norris in the battle for third place. A poor weekend where he can't fight through the field could hand Norris that position and seriously threaten Ferrari's constructors' championship hopes against McLaren. The Scuderia is just 52 points ahead of McLaren with the season winding down, so they've got minimal margin for error.

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Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur has already signaled that Baku suits Leclerc's penalty perfectly, but he's been cagey about when to deploy Hamilton's. The real calculation comes down to weighing that five-point cushion over Norris against each circuit's overtaking credentials. Get it wrong and Ferrari could slip from second to third in the constructors' championship. Get it right and they protect crucial points while giving both drivers the chance to fight with fresh engines in the races that matter most.

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Once both their fifth units are introduced, the plan is to rotate two ADUO 2 specification engines between them for the remaining races. It's a delicate balancing act, but Ferrari's banking on splitting the penalties across different weekends being the key to maximizing points when it counts.

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